UGartner, okuyinkampani ecwaninga nokuhlaziya ubuchwepheshe bolwazi, uveze ukuthi ngo-2024, abakhiqizi bezimoto bazoqhubeka nokusebenza kanzima ukuze babhekane nezinguquko ezilethwa isoftware kanye nokufakwa kukagesi, ngaleyo ndlela bangenise isigaba esisha sezimoto zikagesi.
Uwoyela nogesi kufinyelelwe ekulinganisweni kwezindleko ngokushesha kunalokho obekulindelwe
Izindleko zebhethri ziyehla, kodwa izindleko zokukhiqiza izimoto zikagesi zizokwehla ngokushesha ngenxa yobuchwepheshe obusha obufana ne-gigacasting.Ngenxa yalokho, u-Gartner ulindele ukuthi ngo-2027 izimoto zikagesi zizobe zibiza kancane ukukhiqiza kunezimoto zenjini evuthayo yangaphakathi ngenxa yobuchwepheshe obusha bokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko zebhethri eziphansi.
Mayelana nalokhu, uPedro Pacheco, iphini likamongameli wocwaningo e-Gartner, wathi: “Ama-OEM amasha anethemba lokusichaza kabusha isimo semboni yezimoto.Baletha ubuchwepheshe obusha obenza izindleko zokukhiqiza zibe lula, njengezakhiwo zezimoto ezimaphakathi noma i-die-casting edidiyelwe, esiza ukunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza.izindleko nesikhathi sokuhlanganisa, abakhiqizi bezimoto bendabuko abanakukhetha ngaphandle kokwamukela lezi zindlela ezintsha ukuze baphile. "
"UTesla nabanye babheke ukukhiqiza ngendlela entsha ngokuphelele," kusho uPacheco etshela i-Automotive News Europe ngaphambi kokukhishwa kombiko.
Enye yezinto eziqanjwe kakhulu zikaTesla “i-integrated die-casting,” okubhekisela ekujikijeleni imoto eningi ibe ucezu olulodwa, esikhundleni sokusebenzisa inqwaba yamaphoyinti okushisela nezinamatheliso.U-Pacheco kanye nabanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi u-Tesla ungumholi wokuqamba izinto ezintsha ekunciphiseni izindleko zomhlangano futhi uyiphayona ekudidiyeleni kokufa okuhlanganisiwe.
Ukwamukelwa kwezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi kwehlile kwezinye izimakethe ezinkulu okubalwa kuzo i-United States ne-Europe, ngakho ongoti bathi kubalulekile ukuthi abakhiqizi bezimoto bethule izinhlobo ezingabizi kakhulu.
U-Pacheco uveze ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obudidiyelwe be-die-casting bubodwa bunganciphisa izindleko zomzimba ezimhlophe “ngokungenani” ngo-20%, kanti okunye ukuncishiswa kwezindleko kungafinyelelwa ngokusebenzisa amaphakethe ebhethri njengezakhi zesakhiwo.
Izindleko zebhethri bezilokhu zehla iminyaka, uthe, kodwa ukwehla kwezindleko zomhlangano bekuyinto “ebeyingalindelekile” ezoletha izimoto zikagesi ekulinganeni kwamanani nezimoto ezinjini evuthayo yangaphakathi ngokushesha kunokuba bekucatshangwa.“Sifinyelela kuleli zinga ngaphambi kwesikhathi ebesilindelekile,” engeza.
Ngokukhethekile, inkundla ye-EV ezinikele inganikeza abenzi bezimoto inkululeko yokuklama imigqa yokuhlanganisa ukuze ivumelane nezici zabo, okuhlanganisa ama-powertrain amancane namabhethri aphansi.
Ngokuphambene, amapulatifomu afanele “ama-multi-powertrains” anemikhawulo ethile, njengoba adinga indawo yokufaka ithangi likaphethiloli noma injini/ukudlulisa.
Nakuba lokhu kusho ukuthi izimoto zikagesi zamabhethri zizofinyelela ukulingana kwezindleko nezimoto zenjini evuthayo yangaphakathi ngokushesha okukhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe ekuqaleni, kuzophinde kunyuse kakhulu izindleko zokulungiswa okuthile kwezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi zamabhethri.
U-Gartner ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2027, izindleko ezijwayelekile zokulungisa izingozi ezimbi ezibandakanya imizimba yezimoto zikagesi namabhethri zizokhuphuka ngo-30%.Ngakho-ke, abanikazi bangase bathambekele kakhulu ekukhetheni ukulahla imoto kagesi ephahlazekile njengoba izindleko zokukhanda zingase zibe phezulu kunevelu yayo yokuhlenga.Ngokufanayo, ngenxa yokuthi ukulungisa ukushayisana kubiza kakhulu, amaphrimiyamu omshwalense wemoto angase abe phezulu, abangele ngisho nezinkampani zomshwalense ukuthi zinqabe ukukhokhela amamodeli athile.
Ukwehlisa ngokushesha izindleko zokukhiqiza ama-BEV akumele kube nezindleko zokulungisa eziphakeme, njengoba lokhu kungase kubangele ukuhlehla kwabathengi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.Izindlela ezintsha zokukhiqiza izimoto ezisebenza ngogesi ngokugcwele kufanele zisetshenziswe kanye nezinqubo eziqinisekisa izindleko eziphansi zokunakekela.
Imakethe yezimoto zikagesi ingena esigabeni "sokusinda kwezinga eliphezulu".
U-Pacheco uthe noma nini izindleko zokonga ezimotweni zikagesi zihumusheka emananini aphansi okuthengisa kuncike kumkhiqizi, kodwa isilinganiso senani lentengo yezimoto ezisebenza ngogesi kanye nezimoto ezivuthayo zangaphakathi kufanele zifinyelele ukulingana ngo-2027. Kodwa wabuye waveza ukuthi izinkampani zezimoto zikagesi ezifana I-BYD ne-Tesla banamandla okunciphisa amanani ngoba izindleko zabo ziphansi ngokwanele, ngakho-ke ukuncishiswa kwentengo ngeke kubangele umonakalo omkhulu enzuzweni yabo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uGartner usabikezela ukukhula okuqinile ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi, ingxenye yezimoto ezithengiswa ngo-2030 ziyizimoto ezihlanzekile zikagesi.Kodwa uma kuqhathaniswa “nokugijima kwegolide” kwabakhiqizi bezimoto zikagesi zakuqala, imakethe ingena esikhathini “sokusinda kwabanamandla”.
U-Pacheco uchaze unyaka ka-2024 njengonyaka woshintsho emakethe yezimoto zikagesi yaseYurophu, izinkampani zaseShayina ezifana ne-BYD ne-MG zizakhela awazo amanethiwekhi okuthengisa kanye nezinhlelo zasendaweni, kuyilapho abakhi bezimoto bendabuko abafana noRenault noStellantis bezokwethula amamodeli angabizi kakhulu endaweni.
“Izinto eziningi ezenzekayo njengamanje zingase zingathinti ukuthengiswa, kodwa zilungiselela izinto ezinkulu,” kusho yena.
Khonamanjalo, izimoto eziningi ezisebenza ngogesi ezisezingeni eliphezulu ziye zazabalaza ngonyaka odlule, okuhlanganisa i-Polestar, eyehla kakhulu intengo yamasheya kusukela ekufakweni kwayo ohlwini, kanye neLucid, enciphise isibikezelo sayo sokukhiqiza ngo-2024 ngo-90%.Ezinye izinkampani ezinenkinga kubalwa iFisker, esezingxoxweni neNissan, kanye neGaohe, esanda kuvezwa ukuvalwa kokukhiqiza.
UPacheco uthe, “Ngaleso sikhathi, abaningi abasafufusa bahlangana emkhakheni wezimoto zikagesi ngenkolelo yokuthi bangenza inzuzo elula—kusuka kubakhiqizi bezimoto kuya ezinkampanini ezishaja izimoto zikagesi—futhi abanye babo babesathembele kakhulu emalini yangaphandle, okwabenza ngokukhethekile. abasengozini emakethe.Umthelela wezinselelo.”
U-Gartner ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2027, i-15% yezinkampani zezimoto zikagesi ezisungulwe kule minyaka eyishumi edlule zizotholakala noma ziphelelwe imali, ikakhulukazi lezo ezithembele kakhulu ekutshalweni kwezimali kwangaphandle ukuze ziqhubeke nokusebenza.Kodwa-ke, “Lokhu akusho ukuthi imboni yezimoto zikagesi iyehla, ivele ingene esigabeni esisha lapho izinkampani ezinemikhiqizo nezinsiza ezihamba phambili zizonqoba ezinye izinkampani.”Kusho uPacheco.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uphinde wathi "amazwe amaningi ayeka ukukhuthazwa okuhlobene nezimoto zikagesi, okwenza imakethe ibe inselele kubadlali abakhona."Kodwa-ke, “singena esigabeni esisha lapho izimoto zikagesi kuphela ezingeke zidayiswe ngezinxephezelo/izivumelwano noma izinzuzo zemvelo.Ama-BEV kumele abe wumkhiqizo osezingeni eliphezulu uma kuqhathaniswa nezimoto zenjini evuthayo.”
Ngenkathi imakethe ye-EV ihlanganisa, ukuthunyelwa kanye nokungena kuzoqhubeka nokukhula.UGartner ubikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zikagesi kuzofinyelela kumayunithi ayizigidi eziyi-18.4 ngo-2024 kanye namayunithi ayizigidi ezingama-20.6 ngo-2025.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Mar-20-2024