I-Gartner, i-Information Technology Research kanye nenkampani yokuhlaziya, ekhomba ukuthi ngo-2024, abenzi bezimoto bazoqhubeka nokusebenza kanzima ukuze babhekane nezinguquko ezilethwe yi-software kanye nokufakwa ngogesi, ngaleyo ndlela kufakwa esigabeni esisha sezimoto zikagesi.
Amafutha nogesi kufinyelelwe ku-FAST PARITY ngokushesha kunokulindelekile
Izindleko zebhethri ziyawa, kepha izindleko zokukhiqiza izimoto zikagesi zizokwehla ngokushesha kakhulu kubuchwepheshe obusezingeni eliphezulu obunjenge-gigacasting. Ngenxa yalokhu, uGartner ulindele ukuthi ngezimoto zikagesi ezingama-2027 zizobiza kangako ukukhiqiza kunezimoto ezinjini zokuhlangana zangaphakathi ngenxa yobuchwepheshe obusha bokukhiqiza kanye nezindleko eziphansi zebhethri.
Kulokhu, uPedro Pacheco, ocwaninga uMongameli wePhartner eGartner, uthe: "I-OEMS entsha yethemba lokuphinda ifane nesimo somkhakha wezimoto. Ziletha ubuchwepheshe obusha obulula ukwelula izindleko zokukhiqiza, njengezakhiwo ezisezingeni eliphakathi kwezimoto noma ukuhlanganiswa okudidiyelwe ukufela, okusiza ukunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza. Izindleko Nezindleko Isikhathi, ama-automor ahamba ngezimoto azinakho ukukhetha kepha ukwamukela lezi ezintsha ukuze ziphile. "
"UTesla nabanye babheke ekwenziweni ngendlela entsha ngokuphelele," kusho uPacheco etshela ezenzakalelayo yezindaba europe ngaphambi kokukhululwa kombiko.
Enye yezinto ezintsha ezaziwa kakhulu ngokuthi "zihlangene ngokufa," okubhekisele ekufeni - ukuphonsa iningi lemoto kucezu elilodwa, kunokuba kusetshenziswe amaphoyinti amaningi we-welding kanye nama-adhesives. I-Pacheco kanye nabanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi uTesla ungumholi wokwenza okusha ekunciphiseni izindleko zomhlangano kanye nephayona ekufezeni ukufela okuhlangene.
Ukwemukelwa kwezimoto zikagesi kunciphise kwezinye izimakethe ezinkulu, kufaka phakathi i-United States naseYurophu, ngakho-ke ochwepheshe bathi kubalulekile ukuthi kube nezimoto ukwethula amamodeli abiza imali eliphansi.
UPacheco waveza ukuthi ubuchwepheshe obuhlanganisiwe bokufa die-castwork bunganciphisa izindleko zomzimba ezimhlophe ngo- "okungenani" 20%, kanti okunye ukuncipha kwezindleko kungatholakala ngokusebenzisa amaphakethe ebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri njengezakhi zebhethri.
Izindleko zebhethri bezile iminyaka, wathi, kepha izindleko zomhlangano zibi "yinto engalindelekile" eyayizoletha izimoto zikagesi zibe ngamanani entengo anezimoto zangaphakathi zenjini yokuhlangana ngokushesha kunomcabango. "Sifinyelela leli phuzu lokubopha ngaphambili kunalokho obekulindelwe," engeza.
Ngokukhethekile, isiteji se-eV esizinikezele sizonikeza abenzi benkululeko yokuklama imigqa yoMhlangano ukuze bavumelane nezimpawu zabo, kufaka phakathi ama-Powertrains amancane ama-Powertrains kanye nebhethri elincanyana.
Ngokuphambene nalokho, amapulatifomu alungele "ama-powertrains amaningi" anokulinganiselwa, njengoba adinga isikhala sokuhlalisa ithangi likaphethiloli noma injini / ukudluliswa.
Ngenkathi lokhu kusho ukuthi izimoto zikagesi zebhethri zizofezekisa izindleko ezinezimoto zangaphakathi zenjini yokuhlangana ngokushesha okukhulu kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe ekuqaleni, kuzokhulisa kakhulu izindleko zokulungiswa kwezinye izimoto zikagesi zebhethri.
UGartner ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2027, izindleko ezijwayelekile zokulungisa izingozi ezinkulu ezibandakanya imizimba yezimoto zikagesi namabhethri azokwanda ngama-30%. Ngakho-ke, abanikazi bangase bathambekele ekukhetheni ukudweba imoto kagesi ephahlazekile njengoba izindleko zokulungisa zingaphezulu kunenani lazo lokusindisa. Ngokufanayo, ngoba ukulungiswa kweColorlion kubiza kakhulu, amaphrimiyamu omshuwalense wezimoto nawo angaba ngaphezulu, ngisho nokubangela nezinkampani zomshuwalense ukuthi ziphike ukumboza amamodeli athile.
Ukwehliswa ngokushesha izindleko zokukhiqiza ama-bevs akufanele zize ngezindleko zezindleko eziphezulu zokulungiswa, ngoba lokhu kungadala ukubuyela emuva komthengi esikhathini eside. Izindlela ezintsha zokukhiqiza izimoto zikagesi ngokuphelele kufanele zithunyelwe eceleni kwezinqubo eziqinisekisa izindleko zokulungiswa okuphansi.
Imakethe yemoto kagesi ingena "ukusinda kwesigaba" se-Fittest "
UPacheco uthe noma ngabe imali yokonga isuka ezimotweni zikagesi ihumusha ngamanani aphansi okuthengisa incike kumanzi kagesi kanye nezimoto zezimoto zangaphakathi kufanele zifinyelele ekunciphiseni amanani ngoba izindleko zangaphakathi zithola ukunciphisa amanani ngoba izindleko zazo ziphansi ngokwanele, ngakho-ke ukusikeka kwentengo ngeke kubangele ukulimala okukhulu kwenzuzo yabo.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, uGartner usabikezela ukukhula okuqinile ekuthengisweni kwezimoto zikagesi, okunesigamu sezimoto ezithengiswa ngo-2030 ukuba yizimoto ezihlanzekile zikagesi. Kepha uma kuqhathaniswa ne- "Gold Rush" yabakhiqizi bezimoto zakuleli bukagesi, imakethe ingena esikhathini "sokusinda kwe-Fittest".
UPacheco uchaze u-2024 njengonyaka wenguquko yemakethe yezimoto zaseYurophu, nezinkampani zaseChina ezinjenge-Byd kanye ne-MG ukwakha amanethiwekhi azo, ngenkathi i-stellantis zizokwethula amamodeli abiza kakhulu endaweni yakini.
"Izinto eziningi ezenzekayo njengamanje kungenzeka zingabi nomthelela, kepha zilungiselela izinto ezinkulu," kusho yena.
Ngaleso sikhathi, iziqalo eziningi zemoto ephakeme kakhulu kagesi ziye zazabalaza ngonyaka owedlule, kufaka phakathi i-polestar, ebonile intengo yayo ye-share ihle kakhulu kusukela kuhlu kwayo, kanye neLucid, enquma isibikezelo sayo se-2024 nge-90%. Ezinye izinkampani ezikhathazekile zifaka i-fiskrer, esezinhlakweni neNissan, kanye neGahele, esanda kuvezwa ukuvalwa kokukhiqizwa.
UPacheco uthe, "Ngaleso sikhathi, ama-Start-ups amaningi aqoqwe enkolweni yemoto kagesi enkolweni yokuthi angenza izinzuzo ezilula ezivela ezitolo ezinkulu ezivela ezinhlanzini zangaphandle - futhi ezinye zazo zisathembela kakhulu ekuxhasweni kwezimali zangaphandle, okwabenza baba sengozini enkulu emakethe. Umthelela wezinselelo. "
UGartner ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2027, ama-15% ezinkampanini zezimoto zikagesi ezisungulwe eminyakeni eyishumi edlule zizotholwa noma zizobhebhelwa, ikakhulukazi lezo ezincike kakhulu ekutshaleni imali ngaphandle ukuze uqhubeke nokutshala imali ngaphandle ukuze uqhubeke nokutshala imali. Kodwa-ke, "lokhu akusho ukuthi imboni yemoto kagesi iyancipha, ingena nje esigabeni esisha lapho izinkampani ezinemikhiqizo nezinsizakalo ezinhle kakhulu zizonqoba khona ezinye izinkampani." Kusho uPacheco.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, wabuye wathi "amazwe amaningi akhipha izikhuthazo ezihlobene nezimoto zikagesi, okwenza imakethe ibe yinselele kakhulu kubadlali abakhona." Kodwa-ke, "Singena esigabeni esisha lapho izimoto zikagesi kuphela ezingeke zithengiswe kwizinkuthazo / izivumelwano noma izinzuzo zemvelo. Ama-Bevs kumele abe ngumkhiqizo ophakeme ozungezile uma uqhathanisa nezimoto zangaphakathi zokuhlanza. "
Ngenkathi imakethe ye-EV ihlanganisa, ukuthunyelwa kanye nokungena kokungena kuzoqhubeka nokukhula. UGartner ubikezela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwezimoto zikagesi kuzofika amayunithi ayisigidi angu-18,4 kumayunithi angama-2024 naku-20.6 ngonyaka ka-2025.
Isikhathi sePosi: Mar-20-2024